Oil Industry Leaders: $60 Oil Price is a Breaking Point for Shale Growth (2025)

Imagine a world where oil prices dip to $60 a barrel, and suddenly, the booming U.S. shale industry hits a wall—grinding to a halt and potentially reversing course. That's the breaking point oil executives from major players like TotalEnergies, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Aramco are talking about right now, painting a picture that's equal parts alarming and hopeful for the future of energy. But here's where it gets controversial: Are we really on the cusp of an 'energy addition' rather than a transition away from fossil fuels? Stick around, because this could reshape how you think about global energy demands.

Leading figures from supermajors, American shale producers, and state-owned oil companies are expressing strong optimism about the oil market's trajectory over the coming years and decades. They predict that rising global demand, coupled with a temporary dip in prices, will ultimately restore balance to supply and demand, even as a potential surplus looms large in the near future.

During the recent Energy Intelligence Forum held in London, these industry leaders openly discussed the challenging short-term outlook, where supply is expanding faster than demand can keep up. Yet, they remain confident that the market will self-correct in the medium term, with long-term forecasts showing supply struggling to match an ever-increasing appetite for oil.

There's unanimous agreement among them that a short-term glut is inevitable; the only debate centers on just how extensive that oversupply will be toward the end of this year and into the beginning of next. To illustrate, think of it like a party where too many guests show up with snacks—everyone starts off well-fed, but eventually, the leftovers pile up uncomfortably high.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently reiterated its concerns, warning once again that skyrocketing supply paired with sluggish demand could push oversupply to unprecedented highs. For beginners in energy markets, oversupply simply means there's more oil available than buyers need at current prices, which often drives prices down and squeezes profits.

In September alone, surging production from the Middle East and steady flows from the Americas added a whopping 102 million barrels to global oil inventories at sea— that's equivalent to about 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), the biggest jump since the pandemic disrupted everything. As the IEA noted in its monthly report, this buildup on the water is poised to flood onshore storage hubs, causing crude stocks to balloon while natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are byproducts of oil production, might see a decline. And this is the part most people miss: As these vast volumes move from ships to storage, it could create bottlenecks and price fluctuations that affect everything from fuel costs at the pump to global economic stability.

For context, consider how the North Sea oil scene is diverging dramatically—thriving in Norway but facing decline in the UK—highlighting how regional policies and investments can make or break oil production in different areas.

Oil executives aren't ignoring the immediate pains of falling prices and shrinking profits, but having weathered multiple oversupply cycles, they're staying positive. Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, summed it up bluntly: 'Fundamentally, the short-term market is a little bearish.' He went on to emphasize their medium-term optimism, citing natural production decline rates and the steady climb in worldwide oil consumption as key factors.

Pouyanne pointed out that non-OPEC crude production—meaning output from countries outside the OPEC+ alliance—could start declining when oil hits $60 per barrel or below. 'There is a point at $60 per barrel where we'll see the shale industry beginning to slow down,' he explained during the forum, as reported by Reuters. Drawing from this, TotalEnergies forecasts that by mid-2026, non-OPEC supply will flatten out with no growth, allowing OPEC nations to regain market dominance.

Echoing this view, Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, stated that at WTI oil prices between $60 and $65 per barrel, U.S. output might hit a plateau. He projected U.S. production could rise by 300,000 to 400,000 bpd this year, but warned that if prices linger at $60 or drop into the $50s, the industry could stall or even contract slightly. This highlights a critical threshold for shale operations, which are more sensitive to price swings due to high extraction costs.

Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, framed the glut as a fleeting concern, arguing that the real challenge will be sourcing enough supply to meet demand down the road. 'Oil market oversupply is likely to be a short-term issue, with demand from emerging economies set to make meeting global energy demand more challenging in the medium to longer term,' Woods said at the forum. He stressed ExxonMobil's commitment to focusing on long-term economic growth fundamentals, regardless of political shifts—like those between the Biden and Trump administrations.

Amin Nasser, head of Saudi Arabia's Aramco, delivered a provocative speech at the event, calling for a 'reality check' on the energy transition. He argued that instead of phasing out fossil fuels, we're witnessing an 'energy addition,' where demand for all sources grows, requiring collective action. 'We also see resilient demand, and the pressing need for long-term investments in supply is now widely accepted. So, our growth potential in oil remains large,' Nasser asserted. But here's where it gets controversial: Is this 'energy addition' a pragmatic acknowledgment of reality, or a convenient narrative from oil giants resisting change? Many critics argue that accelerating renewables could curb oil reliance, potentially leaving these investments stranded—do you agree, or is Nasser's view the unvarnished truth?

Despite the grim short-term outlook, these executives unanimously see bright long-term horizons and the urgent need for increased supply in the years ahead. As Lance from ConocoPhillips put it, 'The key strategic question for companies like mine and others is, where is the conventional oil going to come from to satisfy the demand in the face of plateauing or peaking U.S. unconventional supply, as demand continues to grow?' This question underscores the tension between finite shale resources and rising needs, sparking debates on whether alternative energies can fill the gap soon enough.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Oil Industry Leaders: $60 Oil Price is a Breaking Point for Shale Growth (2025)

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