The high-stakes game of Formula 1 driver selection is about to get even more intense! Juan Pablo Montoya believes young Arvid Lindblad is practically guaranteed a Racing Bulls seat next season. But this seemingly simple promotion could trigger a domino effect, potentially leading to the exit of fan-favorite Yuki Tsunoda or rising star Liam Lawson. It all boils down to Red Bull's internal politics versus their driver development plans.
Montoya argues that "Red Bull politics" and the influence of "Red Bull Austria" might just save Tsunoda's seat, even if Helmut Marko, the notorious head of Red Bull's driver program, would likely axe him. In a world where performance isn't the only factor, who stays and who goes? That’s the million-dollar question.
Let’s break down the key players and the potential scenarios:
- 'Politics' at Play: Montoya claims there's a power struggle between Marko and Red Bull Austria influencing driver decisions.
- Montoya Backs Tsunoda: He believes keeping Tsunoda, though seemingly illogical, might be the right move.
- Lawson's Red Bull Dream Fading? Has the highly rated newcomer's chance at a permanent seat already passed him by?
As it stands, both Red Bull Racing and Racing Bulls are poised to welcome new drivers next season. The buzz is that Isack Hadjar is being considered to partner Max Verstappen at Red Bull. PlanetF1.com's sources suggest that Helmut Marko has already informed Hadjar of his promotion, although negotiations are ongoing, and a deal isn't officially signed yet.
If Hadjar does indeed join Verstappen, it would leave Tsunoda without a drive at Red Bull Racing. But here's where it gets controversial... this might not mean the end of Tsunoda's time within the Red Bull system. He could potentially return to Racing Bulls, where he previously scored a significant portion of his F1 points (94 out of 115). However, this move would likely force Lawson out, as Montoya believes Lindblad, Red Bull's junior driver in Formula 2, will take the remaining Racing Bulls seat under Marko's direction. This is a big claim: are young drivers like Lindblad being promoted too quickly, potentially sidelining more experienced racers?
According to Montoya, the deciding factor between Tsunoda and Lawson could be the internal power struggle within Red Bull: Marko versus Red Bull Austria. "I think there is a small chance because of politics, and I don't want to talk about it here," Montoya revealed on the MontoyAS podcast, discussing Tsunoda's chances of staying within the Red Bull fold. "But it's not so black and white because if I put it to you like this: if Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90% he would be out."
"But right now, things have changed a bit; they are a little more political. Red Bull Austria, it seems to me, wants to have a little more control of what is happening in the team," he continued. "So now, how the decisions are made and the things that happen are going to change a bit, especially because there are three seats."
"Lindblad goes up for sure; it's whether Yuki leaves or whether Liam Lawson leaves," Montoya stated definitively. "Theoretically, that is the plan."
But and this is the part most people miss...Montoya believes Red Bull should stick with their current Red Bull drivers (Verstappen and Tsunoda) and allow Lawson and Hadjar to drive for Racing Bulls.
While Tsunoda initially struggled with the RB21, he has shown improvement, securing four points-scoring results in the last seven races, bringing his total to 28 points. While far behind Verstappen's 341, it's a noticeable step forward. Montoya believes Tsunoda could build on this momentum next season with the new Formula 1 cars.
"If you look, Yuki has done a good job compared to what Lawson could have done and what everyone in that Red Bull car has done until now," Montoya explained. "So the work Yuki is doing is not ideal, but he has improved."
"So, if they give Yuki one more year, I think Yuki will be able to start aligning things. So it wouldn't be so logical to take him out," he added. "And Lawson and Hadjar are finishing in the points, both of them."
However, Montoya emphasized that the lack of complete control by Helmut Marko makes the situation unclear. "If you look at it from the outside, if you take Helmut out of there and look at the results of the four drivers they have for three seats, they deserve to continue. So the problem is that there is a lot of politics and everything."
"On one hand, I think Yuki still has very strong political ties within Red Bull that can keep him there, and on the other hand, everyone still has a bit of a chance there. If they were to take someone out, the most probable would be Yuki."
Unfortunately for Tsunoda, his dream of staying with the same team next year might be shattered by Hadjar's potential promotion to Verstappen's teammate. This move could mark the end of Tsunoda's journey with the Red Bull family.
Christian Horner, Red Bull's team principal, previously stated that Lawson's potential was the reason he was chosen over Tsunoda for a Red Bull seat. He also made it clear that Tsunoda's time at Racing Bulls was limited, as the team's primary goal was to develop talent for Red Bull, not just provide a seat.
"We're acutely aware that if we're not able to provide an opportunity for Yuki in all honesty this year, does it [keeping him on] make sense?," Horner said. "You can't have a driver in the support team for five years."
"You can't always be the bridesmaid. You've either got to let them go at that point or look at something different."
Now, after being given a chance to shine but falling short of Verstappen's performance, Tsunoda's Red Bull dream might become the reason for his Formula 1 exit. The Japanese driver has been linked to a reserve role at Aston Martin for the F1 2026 season, given Honda's engine partnership with the team, but these are just rumors at this point.
So, what do you think? Is Red Bull's driver program too ruthless? Should performance be the only factor in driver selection, or do things like "political ties" deserve consideration? And who deserves the Racing Bulls seat: Tsunoda, Lawson, or Lindblad? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
